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April 13, 2004

One Way It's Like Vietnam

A provocative column by Richard Cohen

Here are the reasons Iraq is not Vietnam: It is a desert, not a jungle. The enemy is not protected and supplied by major powers such as the Soviet Union or China, not to mention a formidable front-line state such as North Vietnam. The Iraqis are not, like the Vietnamese, a single culture fighting a long-term war of liberation from colonial masters. They are fragmented by religion and language, and they have been independent ever since the British left lo these many years ago. In almost every way but one, Iraq is not Vietnam. Here's the one: We don't know what the hell we're doing.

This is the most important finding you can take from the debacle of the past two weeks. The sudden uprising of the Shiite militia loyal to Moqtada Sadr took U.S. forces by surprise.
The British Empire was able to rule these nations rather effectively for quite some time. But they did so by adapting to local traditions, and ruling indirectly through local leaders. Coming from an initial skepticism toward nation-building, the Bush Administration has been converted to a radical attempt to remake Iraqi society. It is failing.

Edmund Burke would be appalled. If I didn't know Bush was a conservative, I'd think this foolishness was the product of ultra-liberal political correctness.

Posted by rickheller at April 13, 2004 10:39 AM
Comments

Boy, I'm just not ready to jump on the "debacle" or "failure' bandwagons.

If one recognizes the goal of democratizing Iraq as difficult and messy to achieve, then one should expect setbacks, and especially organized opposition from those whose interests conflict with western democracy.

And if one recognizes the goal of democratizing Iraq as difficult and messy to achieve, one should expect that the goal will not be reached without showing resolve in the face of opposition.

So I'm sticking with uncertain but hopeful over debacle or failure.

Posted by: bk at April 13, 2004 11:22 AM

Are you comfortable with this adminstration, looking back at the "open arms" and "cakewalk" talk when we first invaded?

The debacle is not the fact that the war is still going on - we not-blind people over here expected that was going to happen. The debacle is that even though, to put it bluntly, "we were right and you were wrong" (where "you" is the cakewalk crew), for some reason some still trust the cakewalk crew to run the restoration.

Posted by: Hipocrite at April 13, 2004 12:16 PM

I never thought it would be a cakewalk, which is why I only supported the war on the presumption that Saddam had WMD's, which he could deploy using methods that emulated Al Qaeda's. I figued it would be tough, but necessary. Now it's looking tough and unnecessary.

Regarding the Administration, while I've been critical of them, I don't know that they can all be placed in the cakewalk basket. Some were and some weren't, but I don't recall who was who.

Posted by: rickheller at April 13, 2004 12:29 PM

What happened to Les Aspin? Who has been Aspined so far?

Posted by: Hipocrite at April 13, 2004 01:03 PM

The essential problem with the administration goes something like this: 'Never admit a problem. Therefore there are never lessons to learn.'

I really don't know if this is the Bush vision of being 'team players' or -- as many have said -- arrogance or even ideologically reinforced stupidity.

Posted by: erasmus at April 13, 2004 02:00 PM

I never thought it would be a cakewalk. Indeed, my main objection to invading Iraq was my pessimism over the prospects for success. But Bush has stressed on multiple occasions that no one should think that anything would be a calkewalk. He never said it would be easy. Surely no one else in the administration should be used as a proxy for the admin's views when the President has been pretty clear. As usual dippocrite, your characterizations are gross mischaracterizations.

To the extent that the Bush admin has hoed the row of "never admit a problem see no evil"-ism, it has surely been echoed by "see no positive"-ism on the left. Honestly, I'd be happier and more positive towards the administration if it were more upfront about whatever miscalculations it has made.

B I have no doubt that anti-war partisans would morph any such admissions into "even the adminstration admits its failure." Such is life when partisans have a ready-made negative intrpretation for each of two opposite policy approaches. Honesty and forthrightness is sacrificed.

Posted by: bk at April 13, 2004 02:57 PM

Bush has stressed on multiple occasions that no one should think that anything would be a calkewalk.

Is that before or after the Mission Acomplished Photo-Op?

Posted by: Hipocrite at April 13, 2004 04:39 PM

Dipocrite, that's the best you've got?

In your spare time between partisan blatherings, maybe you can take a trot down to the ROTC. If you ask nicely, maybe they'll explain what "mission" means in the context of a war, as opposed to a battle or a war.

Try again.

Posted by: bk at April 13, 2004 09:07 PM

It would be wise to remember that the revolutionary war in this country was began 'by only a few unhappy people'. Look what they accomplished. It is not the number of people but the strenght of their will to win.

Posted by: wanda at April 14, 2004 02:36 AM

Ask an honest question, get a snarky answer, eh?

While I remember a great deal of mixed rhetoric pre-Mission Acomplished, to my recollection, right up until this week, the adminstration has issued nothing but rosey outlooks. I certainly could be wrong, but at least I'm not an ass about it.

Posted by: Hipocrite at April 14, 2004 07:38 AM

Hipocrite,

Actually, I thought you asked a snarky question. But now that you've clarified it, I'll give a sincere answer.

Pre-invasion, there was mixed rhetoric, so saying that the Administration was calling is a cakewalk is a bit revisionist.

But you're right, post the fall of Baghdad, there was a spirit of triumphalism that said the hard work was behind us, and reconstruction, while costly, would proceed unchallenged. That has proven to be a major error.

Posted by: rickheller at April 14, 2004 08:23 AM

A spirit of triumphalism? Yeah it was there, in some areas, but Bush himself always stressed that this would be a long war on many fronts over many times, and that there was much work to do, and so on.

I viewed this spirit of triumphalism as a little childish and premature. BUT. But let's not forget that the proposed invasion of Iraq was met by many of those opposed to it with dire predictions of high casualties, quagmire, and pitched opposition, widespread or total destruction of oil fields. Lots of things that were, frankly, way off, and never came to pass.

We toppled the regime and took over the country pretty quickly and with minimal casualties and minimal destruction. And I think the partisan right triumphalism was a direct response to extent to which the anti-war lefts most dire predictions were way, way, off.

Lost in all this is that one reason we took over the body of Iraq quickly and with minimal casualties is that we deferred conflict in expected areas of high hostility, like Fallujah. And now that bill is due. My sense is that both the right-triumphalists and the dire consequences left were off the mark.

And to anticipate a left-handed response to that, I draw a big distinction between criticism of how the INVASION would go and how the OCCUPATION would go. The invasion went as well as could be expected, and the left was totally wrong about that. The occupation has been very difficult, and anyone who expected otherwise was a fool.

Posted by: bk at April 14, 2004 08:58 AM

As an additional clarification, when I say "cakewalk crew," I refer only to those members of the adminstration (notably, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz) who were publicaly of the mistaken opinion that the invasion and reconstruction would be quick and painless.

Posted by: Hipocrite at April 14, 2004 08:58 AM

I want to see an Administration "cakewalk" quote, in context. I can't remember any.

And the idea that the revolt took the Administration by surprise is silly. Why do you think we have over 100,000 troops there? Just to rebuild schools? To be potted plants, maybe

Posted by: Jon Kay at April 14, 2004 03:14 PM

Q.: "Do you expect the invasion, if it comes, to be welcomed by the majority of the civilian population of Iraq?"

A.: "There is no question but that they would be welcomed. Go back to Afghanistan, the people were in the streets playing music, cheering, flying kites, and doing all the things that the Taliban and the al-Qaeda would not let them do."

Why we have all the troops there? Flypaper. Remember bring-em-on?

Posted by: Hipocrite at April 15, 2004 09:58 AM
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