Centerfield

There must be something to this rumor because otherwise the Kerry people would be nuts not to kill it. If they really have no intention of giving McCain serious consideration, but they allow speculation to linger, whoever Kerry picks will disappoint. I think an "I thought about being bold but decided against it" message would hurt.

Even if Kerry offers, McCain will not accept without some assurances from Kerry regarding national security issues. Assurances that would be good enough for McCain would probably be good enough for me.

My gut feeling right now is that there is a 60 percent chance that Bush will be reelected. My other gut feeling is that if Kerry entices McCain, that goes down to 30 percent. Has there ever been so much upside to a VP pick?

I guess there is one other possibility. McCain could be teasing Kerry, only to later stand him up and thereby provide a big boost for Bush. However, I find that unlikely because I think that McCain respects Kerry too much and he would find that a dishonorable thing to do.

Let's not get all excited just yet... let's not forget that John McCain has openly and publicly campaigned for the President during this election cycle. How does he answer the question about switching? Doesn't it look self serving if he takes the VP nod? How does all of this get justified? What if Bush responds with... say... Rudolph Giuliani? Will the Democratic base go nuts?

Hoo boy... it is certainly fun to talk about though... isn't it!?!?!?! More to the point... what does it say about the two party system that most people are more excited about the veep stakes then they are the about the general election between their nominees? How long does it take before one of the two party's stops pandering to the center and realizes that Americans are sick and tired of both extremes?

What does this say about John Kerry? If he picks McCain... why does that make this a bold move, and not an act of desperation from a man who has not intention of governing in the center?

I think that McCain would set some fairly specific terms before accepting. Also, any change of heart by McCain would doom Kerry's chances. Maybe this is the main reason that Kerry hesitates -- McCain could hold him hostage.

I'm not sure the downside of ultimately not picking him outweighs the upside, now. By and large, people don't know Kerry ... and if they're thinking to themselves "hey, he's friends with McCain" ... or "hey, he likes the way McCain does things (and vice versa)" ... that does something to shape Kerry's image.

I believe Kerry's advisors have made that calculation, based on them being quoted in various places. And they may have a month or two to tease this out before finally making a decision.

I recognize, basically, that this is good strategy for Kerry ... and that he's probably not serious. But I think fueling it is good -- because if the reaction is strong enough it may become a possibility.

Another thought. To the extent this is serious, a lot may hinge on Iraq policy. McCain is clearly in the camp of "lets stay and finish the job" -- he's telling Bush openly now that he can't act all optimistic about the current situation, that he should level with the American people about the costs and the time it will take to establish a legitimate authority in Iraq.

If Kerry isn't on that same track -- if he's not, in effect, to the right of Bush on Iraq -- then this marriage isn't a possibility. I don't see McCain accepting second-fiddle on a team that waivers on the war.

I think you're all focusing too much on the effect the speculation might have on Kerry's image and not enough on the effect it has on Bush's image. It's no secret that McCain has serious problems with Bush's policies. Yes, he campaigned for Bush, but have you ever seen him speak about that fact? He seems positively embarassed to admit to it. And McCain's refusal to completely dismiss the possibility of a Kerry VP-ship must have the Bush team pretty nervous.

Some of Bush's policy decisions (Medicare, immigration, deficit spending) have the potential to create a serious rift in the much-vaunted GOP solidarity, and having a well-respected, high profile, very conservative Senator entertaining thoughts of running as VP for a Democrat can't be helping.

This is interesting -- "'I believe my party has gone astray,' McCain said." (4/2/2004) (http://news.bostonherald.com/national/view.bg?articleid=1611)

Matt Lauer on the Today show this morning asked him point blank: "Are you considering running for VP with John Kerry?", to which McCain replied, "I am not, and will not run for VP. I will not switch parties." or words to that effect. Can't get any clearer than that - the rumor is just rumor.

Matt, doesn't the fact that no modern candidate has ever picked a running mate from the other party make this a bold choice regardless of whatever other considerations there are? Besides, bold doesn't preclude "desperate."

I still don't think this will happen, but notice these points. Mccain despises Bush. He loves being an iconoclast. He's getting older. He is older than his vitality suggests, and I believe he would be into his 70s should he wait for 2008 to run, which is a hard sell. Given this, if McCain makes the judgement that Bush is leading the country in fundamentally unsound directions and that he can change these directions by running with Kerry, he won't eschew this simply on the basis of loyalty to his party. At his age, his sense of generativity is such that he feels a higher loyalty to his country.

It will be especially hard on Bush if McCain flops on the basis of his valuation that the war on terror is a tantamount concern and he feels Bush's foreign policy is fundamentally unsound. It will be nearly impossible for Bush's people to spin away a bipartisan ticket composed of two Vietnam veterans.

Right now McCain is rattling his saber and trying to get more attention for his concerns within the party by saying it has problems. I believe his statement that he's not running for VP. But he didn't say that he absolutely won't change his mind if he gets disappointed enough.

A technical question: does McCain legally have to switch parties and become a democrat to run with Kerry? Or could they run as a bipartisan ticket? Anyone know?

bk,

There are no legal party restrictions on presidential tickets, since parties weren't supposed to be part of the original picture on how presidents were to be chosen. Of course, that kind of idealism died with Washington's presidency, and the parties have since become the arbiters of how we select presidents, on everything from primaries to restricting participation in the debates. But we should never, particularly on a website like this one, forget that these are no more than conventions imposed by the ruling parties and there is no legal basis for them.

From a practical standpoint, though, I wonder if McCain would be allowed (by the party leadership) to retain his Republican affiliation. If the point is supposed to be that Kerry is trying to usher in an era of bipartisan support, then it would be a nice gesture to have him retain his party affiliation. At the same time, the party leadership are inclined to reject anything that detracts from their power, even if it is for the "good of the country" and I can't see them allowing it. Besides, it would only take one psychopathic Michigan militia type to get the idea that killing Kerry would be a good way to give us a Republican president -- don't think they aren't out there.

If McCain joined the Dem ticket, the Republican Party would strip him of everything he has in the Senate. He would be stripped of his committee and commission seats; Armed Services, Commerce, and Indian Affairs. The Intelligence Commission. Etc. He'd (rightfully) be treated as a traitor by his own constituents--not just for switching parties, but for costing Arizona its major clout in the Senate. A loss on the Dem ticket as a VP candidate would be one of the most spectacular and pointless career crash & burns in political history, and that's not McCain.

While there may be no law against a Republican running on the Democrat ticket, I can guarantee that there are Republican and Democrat internal party rules against it. McCain would have to switch parties. He would have no choice, as the Republicans could and would boot him from the GOP, and the Dems would never allow the precedent of a Republican on the Democrat ticket. Nor do I think the Dem bases would swallow a free-trade, pro-life hawk turncoat on the ticket.

And I just can't see McCain doing that. I continually question the credibility and integrity of politicians. But for me to believe that John McCain would play the turncoat in any fashion whatsoever, I will not believe unless forced to by the actual fact. A gadfly, a critic, a pain in the butt to the current leadership, yes. He always has been. He's one of the few politicians on the national stage that has demonstrated time and again that he's committed to his positions and constituents rather than the party line or the current party leaders. His given word is gold in the bank, no matter how his party moves, unlike the bulk of his colleagues who simply follow the handlers most of the time.

That's what makes him so attractive to the public and to the Kerry campaign, of course. But it's also why this won't happen.

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