A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics
|
|
|
A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics | |
|
April 03, 2004Minnesota – A Battleground StateIt seems clear that because of the Electoral College system, this presidential campaign is going to be run in only 18 states. Minnesota is one of those states. I live in Minnesota. I feel special. For those of you in the other 49 states, Minnesota must seem politically schizophrenic. At one time, our two U.S. Senators were Rod Grams (a former TV anchor, and arch conservative) and Paul Wellstone (no explanation needed, I hope), and our governor was James Janos (a/k/a Jesse Ventura) (again, no explanation needed, I hope). Any common thread? I think so. Minnesotans gravitate toward candidates who are driven by the strength of their convictions as much as the nature of those convictions. Norm Coleman -- a pro-choice Democrat but later pro-life Republican when it appeared that his path to advancement was blocked in the Democratic party -- lost to a professional wrestler in the 1998 race for governor. Coleman would have lost to Wellstone in 2000 in the Senate race but for an airplane crash, and he would have lost to Mondale too but for the Wellstone memorial service fiasco. The last time that a Republican presidential candidate carried Minnesota was in 1972, and still today I think that Minnesotans as a group are more in line with Kerry’s somewhat ambiguous political agenda. However, I also think that a critical segment of Minnesotans will be receptive to a message from Bush that Kerry is an unprincipled flip-flopper, etc. (oh, and by the way he is not really against gay marriage.) I don’t know how Kerry is going to deal with these issues, on top of the overwhelming national security issues. But my gosh, he better get started. From now until Election Day, I will offer periodic updates regarding the state of the presidential race in Minnesota from my perspective. In my view, Bush can win this election without winning Minnesota, but Kerry can’t. The most recent Rasmussen poll has the race in Minnesota as Kerry 47%, Bush 44%. Stay tuned. Mr. Swann – I would relish anything you can tell us about what is going on in Ohio. Anyone else want to pick a state? (lurking Jim R. -- Iowa and/or Kentucky for you ?) Posted by Todd Pearson at April 3, 2004 12:52 AMComments
Hi Todd. We are of course already inundated with campaign commercials here in Ohio. Most of them for Kerry seem to be from outside groups. I saw a report somewhere that Kerry was outspending Bush in Ohio -- which seems credible --but that Bush is outspending him in Florida. Ohio normally leans Republican -- we have a Republican governor, two Republican senators, and we went for Bush in 2000. But there's some discussion here that Kerry has a good shot this year. We've been hit pretty hard by job losses, especially the northern and southeast parts of the state. Also, our local paper here in Columbus -- the Dispatch -- has a long history of supporting Republicans, but their editorial perspective has shifted dramatically in the last year or two. They're pretty negative toward Bush, and there's some discussion they will endorse a Democrat for the first time. Posted by: William Swann at April 3, 2004 08:15 AMMissouri for me! All kinds of fun questions and really ugly politikin' to report on in Missouri. Besides, I've already got Gephardt in the VP pool. Will St. Louis once again field more voters than it has voting-age citizens? Will dead St. Louis voters once again file suit to keep the polls open until they can get to them? (Both of these things actually happened in the 2000 election. Voter fraud in St. Louis is legendary.) Posted by: Tully at April 3, 2004 08:56 AMHere's a link to a poll in Ohio. This was taken by the University of Cincinnati and just released a couple days ago. But the surveys were actually done March 10-22. It says Kerry leads Bush 46%-44%. Kerry leads Bush by 11% in Northeast Ohio (Cleveland area). Bush leads Kerry by 8% in Southwest Ohio (Cincinnati area). It also shows Bush has an all-time low favorability rating in Ohio of 46%, compared to 51% disapproval. Posted by: William Swann at April 3, 2004 09:27 AMLike I've said before, here in MA, the suspense is at an all-time low. I am hoping that a site I used to visit for the 2000 election is duplicated somewhere Someone did a state-by-state red state-blue state map that showed the latest poll results, and also broke them out by whether the poll difference was more or less than 5 points. I think it tallied the elctoral votes too, but I may be misremembering. Anyway it provided an "if the election were held tolday" snapshot from an electoral perspective. Let's all be on the lookout for something like that. It's MUCH more valuable than a national poll. Posted by: bk at April 3, 2004 10:27 AMTodd, couldn't tell you where things stand outside of Minnesota--I've been here too long. I'm just having a difficult time choosing between two candidates that offer so little in the form of leadership skills and vision and are so beholden to the extremes of their respective parties. That being said, I was very intrigued by the rumor that Kerry is considering McCain (sp?) for his vp. Posted by: Jim Rogers at April 3, 2004 01:48 PMWelcome, Jim. I will excuse you from Iowa and Kentucky (your former homes -- did I forget Michigan?), but I would ask for your help in tracking moods and trends in outstate Minnesota. Posted by: Todd Pearson at April 3, 2004 03:52 PM |
Archives
March 2006
February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 November 2004 October 2004 September 2004 August 2004 July 2004 June 2004 May 2004 April 2004 March 2004 February 2004 January 2004 December 2003 November 2003 October 2003 September 2003 August 2003 July 2003 June 2003 May 2003 April 2003
Recent Entries
Dubai Out
Why So Long Between Democracies? Round One, Centrism Rock Lobster? Blackwell Releases "Worst-Treated" List "IRV" used in Burl., VT for mayor election. Great idea! Random Thread Election 2006: Round One A Proper Multiculturalism Bush proposes line item veto act - what's changed?
|
